Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.124040 18.448575 21.160248 24.600998 28.915412 34.237694 4.145042e+01
2025-02-16 13.506525 16.416492 20.140559 25.405346 32.924513 43.751734 6.155295e+01
2025-02-23 11.757405 14.847335 19.046817 25.440201 35.481971 51.821921 8.365512e+01
2025-03-02 10.513134 13.656670 18.127021 25.339225 37.587894 59.773356 1.106744e+02
2025-03-09 9.673483 12.872028 17.602281 25.639224 40.318334 69.873059 1.508735e+02
2025-03-16 8.731486 11.805162 16.471605 24.687201 40.489287 74.927012 1.841153e+02
2025-03-23 8.143608 11.193920 15.954033 24.659798 42.388120 84.728282 2.462095e+02
2025-03-30 7.457038 10.358463 14.966748 23.606848 41.887093 88.431396 2.929232e+02
2025-04-06 6.818842 9.543636 13.926775 22.295251 40.511627 89.228711 3.297539e+02
2025-04-13 6.310475 8.896346 13.107405 21.290926 39.613785 91.128393 3.799337e+02
2025-04-20 6.418720 9.248306 14.031295 23.850509 47.911261 128.091872 8.799884e+02
2025-04-27 6.255201 9.133851 14.113543 24.699535 52.237017 155.913011 1.737210e+03
2025-05-04 5.821180 8.549210 13.315955 23.606195 51.106000 160.804496 2.385093e+03
2025-05-11 5.660578 8.422552 13.360300 24.405359 55.871065 200.962124 8.115470e+03
2025-05-18 5.426210 8.147984 13.093090 24.440592 58.334958 233.711623 4.099552e+04
2025-05-25 5.199892 7.870658 12.792345 24.345438 60.375831 268.856010 5.854368e+07
2025-06-01 5.031941 7.685394 12.654596 24.628508 63.927039 325.937574 NaN
2025-06-08 4.763928 7.301758 12.084622 23.729930 62.748417 339.165723 NaN
2025-06-15 4.598814 7.096775 11.862552 23.704053 65.042249 397.473158 NaN
2025-06-22 4.358906 6.740771 11.302433 22.709156 63.053564 401.508399 NaN
2025-06-29 4.112597 6.362345 10.674015 21.468317 59.739427 383.367040 NaN
2025-07-06 3.906576 6.050835 10.169223 20.516974 57.480109 377.874989 NaN
2025-07-13 3.997945 6.299161 10.858969 22.939481 71.268041 710.332627 NaN